Friday, December 25, 2009

2009 Bowl Previews: Part VIII

[NOTE: This should have posted yesterday at 4:30 ET.  There were some technical difficulties that ate some of the post.]

The bowls are getting more competitive and have some real choice matchups.  Today's post looks at two mid-majors and one of the closest bowls we'll see this winter.

#14: Liberty Bowl
Arkansas Razorbacks vs East Carolina Pirates (63.6 CQR)
Eddie:  You might expect (40) East Carolina to be prepared for (24) Arkansas after beating pass-happy Houston in the Conference USA championship game.  Unlike Houston, however, Arkansas can play something resembling defense at 16.1 PPH.  Arkansas is extremely good for a five-loss team, losing to Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, and LSU with four of those games on the road, so don't let the record fool you.  Neither team has a problem with penalties or turnovers, so expect a clean game with Arkansas prevailing 28-24.
Justin: (49) East Carolina got here by squeaking past (39) Houston in the CUSA title game, but unlike Houston, (25) Arkansas has an actual offense. Houston might rack up the points, but they did it by playing a blistering pace -- nearly 200 plays per game on average -- and against sub-par defenses.  The Razorbacks have the 9th-best adjusted offense which hums along at 25.2 PPH (+3.3 PPH over Houston), a full 8.4 PPH better than ECU.  The Pirates will need to rely on their defense in order to slow down Arkansas's attack.  TFG gives them 1-in-3 odds of doing so, but favors Arkansas to prevail.

#13: Texas Bowl
Missouri Tigers vs Navy Midshipmen (64.9 CQR)
Justin: By all accounts this should be a close game.  TFG ranks it as the second-closest prediction of the 34 bowls, with (37) Navy having only a 52.1% chance of prevailing over (40) Missouri.  Beore the Army game these teams were even closer in the rankings than UConn/South Carolina, so this has the potential to go down to the wire.  Both have similar offenses and similar defenses; the only big difference is that Missouri plays a much faster game than Navy.  If the Tigers can get the Midshipmen out of their game then that might tip the balance their way.  As it is, the edge goes to Navy, 31-28.
Eddie:  (39) Navy plays one of the cleanest games in town, averaging only 0.92 turnovers and 3.67 penalties per game.  Part of that is due to their offensive style, averaging only 154 plays per game with the flexbone rushing attack.  The other part is that they are simply well-disciplined.  (45) Missouri plays a contrasting style, utilizing a fast-paced spread attack with 176 plays per game.  Navy has a slight edge with 15.4 PPH, opposed to Missouri's 14.2 PPH.  The slow pace means that Navy's advantage is reduced, producing an exciting 25-24 conclusion at 50.2% confidence.

#9: Meineke Bowl
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Pittsburgh Panthers (73.7 CQR)
(NOTE: This bowl is scheduled for December 26nd so we needed to publish our preview today.  This should be the last out-of-order preview.)
Eddie:  It was just a few weeks ago that I was talking about (12) Pittsburgh in the national championship game.  Pitt has still put in a very solid season with a combination of solid offense and defense.  (26) North Carolina has been very consistent but at a slightly lower level than Pittsburgh.  The Panthers should put up 15.2 PPH against the Tar Heels' 14.5 PPH.  Pitt is also less turnover prone than UNC, giving them the additional edge necessary to pull out a 24-21 victory.
Justin: (29) North Carolina went on a late-season tear, upending (8) Virginia Tech in Blacksburg and (20) Miami.  It was only a season-ending loss to (78) North Carolina State that dropped them out of the top 25 and stopped their meteoric rise.  Their success is thanks to their stingy defense -- giving up only 12.3 PPH -- because they're not getting much from their sputtering offense (16.9 PPH).  The 18th-ranked Panthers are slightly worse on the defensive end, but their 22.4 PPH-rated offense has propelled them into the top 20.  Both teams play at a similar pace, so expect this to be a pretty standard grind-em-out game with neither team gaining a significant upper hand.  In the end, though, TFG has the Panthers as 3-to-5 favorites to pick up the victory by 3.

Summary:
Home
Visitors
Odds
Home
Visitors
Odds
(25)
Arkansas
35
(49)
East Carolina
31
65.8
(24)
Arkansas
28
(40)
East Carolina
24
55.9
(40)
Missouri
28
(37)
Navy
31
52.1
(44)
Missouri
24
(39)
Navy
25
50.4
(29)
North Carolina
24
(18)
Pittsburgh
27
59.2
(26)
North Carolina
21
(12)
Pittsburgh
24
58.1