Monday, November 9, 2009

Week 11: Top 25

One more week in the books, one more week of TFG rankings.

Rank
+/-
Team
WinPct
SoS
Off Pts
Def Pts
Pace
001
--
Florida
0.9634
0.6304
30.7
9.1
77.4
002
+1
Texas
0.9581
0.5499
29.4
9.2
85.3
003
-1
TCU
0.9541
0.4668
23.8
7.7
83.1
004
+2
Ohio St.
0.9439
0.5177
22.4
7.9
82.4
005
--
Alabama
0.9384
0.5899
24.4
8.9
81.1
006
+2
Oklahoma
0.9174
0.7151
22.3
9.1
90.0
007
-3
Boise St.
0.9062
0.3978
26.7
11.5
84.0
008
+1
USC
0.9023
0.5835
22.8
10.0
85.1
009
-2
Penn State
0.8982
0.5238
20.9
9.3
81.8
010
+1
Virginia Tech
0.8760
0.6439
24.4
11.8
81.4
011
-1
Oregon
0.8631
0.6093
24.1
12.2
91.5
012
--
LSU
0.8480
0.5704
20.8
11.0
80.5
013
+2
Nebraska
0.8412
0.5372
19.4
10.5
82.2
014
+2
Clemson
0.8372
0.6336
20.3
11.1
84.6
015
+2
Texas Tech
0.8306
0.5697
28.0
15.5
89.3
016
-3
Cincinnati
0.8055
0.4831
22.3
13.2
85.6
017
-3
Iowa
0.7963
0.5344
19.7
11.9
81.7
018
NA
BYU
0.7834
0.4008
23.9
14.9
83.1
019
+1
Pittsburgh
0.7814
0.5001
22.8
14.2
81.9
020
-2
Utah
0.7657
0.3546
20.7
13.3
84.4
021
+1
Oklahoma St.
0.7639
0.5792
24.6
15.9
82.6
022
-3
Tennessee
0.7492
0.5629
21.2
14.2
82.7
023
+2
Miami-FL
0.7454
0.6893
23.1
15.5
82.6
024
NA
Oregon St.
0.7419
0.6327
21.5
14.5
87.5
025
-1
Mississippi
0.7279
0.5665
19.1
13.3
82.7

New entries: BYU, Oregon State

Dropped out: Georgia Tech, Wisconson

At the top Texas leapfrogs TCU to settle into second behind Florida.  The Ohio State/Penn State game was good for a total of four points of movement: OSU jumps two and PSU drops two.  Oklahoma loses but still manages to rise, but that's deceptive; Oklahoma's week-over-week winning percentage is on a steady decline as the loss of Sam Bradford is reflected in their plummeting offensive efficiency -- down 2.7 points in three weeks, with more to come -- and only their defensive efficiency keeping them near the top.  (For everyone who sees this as 'Exhibit A' for my system being horribly broken, I direct you to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor algorithm, which ranks the Sooners at 8th in the nation.)

Boise State's weak strength of schedule is slowly catching up with them, as they slowly sink with every point their opponents score.  When your ranking depends on not just winning but demolishing your opponents thanks to a weak SoS, you can't afford to let LA-Tech hang 35 on you.  Had Boise State allowed one less touchdown or had Penn State scored one more TD, Oklahoma would have held steady or even dropped.

And, in a weird case of symmetry, neither LSU nor Alabama budge in the rankings.  Hopefully Mike Slive won't fine me for pointing that out.