Boise State (8-0, #7 BCS, #4 Tempo-Free Gridiron, 0.956 WPct, 0.391 SoS)
Boise State has played the least challenging schedule of any undefeated team and has one of the smoothest roads to the end of the season. As of today their most difficult opponent for the remainder of the year will be LA Tech, whom they play this weekend, in which they are "only" 97% favorites.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (82) LA Tech | 14 | (4) Boise St. | 24 | 97.0 |
| (4) Boise St. | 47 | (96) Idaho | 22 | 99.1 |
| (90) Utah St. | 17 | (4) Boise St. | 31 | 97.8 |
| (4) Boise St. | 38 | (70) Nevada | 24 | 97.7 |
| (4) Boise St. | 45 | (118) New Mexico St. | 14 | 99.8 |
There is only a 1-in-12 chance that Boise State will not end the season undefeated. However, historically teams from outside the "Big Six" aren't invited to the National Championship game, especially if there are two undefeated teams from within the BCS conferences. Things could get very interesting if Oregon wins out the remainder of their games -- a distinct possibility -- and starts getting serious National Championship talk themselves. Shades of OU/Texas from last year, anyone?
TCU (8-0, #6 BCS, #2 TFG, 0.968 WPct, 0.486 SoS)
TCU is in a similar position as Boise State. Currently undefeated, likely to win out the rest of their games, but clearly considered a second-tier team. Their key wins this year are against Virginia, Clemson, Air Force, and BYU. Not exactly a stunning resume, especially since Virginia has been in free-fall last the few weeks (losing at home to Duke will do that to your reputation) and Clemson is good on paper but can't seem to pull it together for the big games. The rest of the year looks to be downhill for TCU, though.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (104) SDSU | 14 | (2) TCU | 24 | 99.0 |
| (2) TCU | 24 | (18) Utah | 17 | 92.0 |
| (100) Wyoming | 15 | (2) TCU | 32 | 98.9 |
| (2) TCU | 42 | (114) New Mexico | 15 | 99.8 |
Other than the home game against Utah, TCU should be able to put it on cruise control for the rest of the season and still come out undefeated. They have nearly a 90% chance of finishing the year with an unblemished record. How the BCS will respond to two undefeated non-BCS teams remains to be seen.
Cincinnati (#5 BCS, #13 TFG, 0.858 WPct, 0.456 SoS)
Cincinnati is a team that the voters love, the BCS computers love, yet tempo-free stats remain unsure. Their defensive rating (11.7) is respectable, yet their offensive efficiency (21.3) is keeping them out of the top 10. It sounds odd to pick on a team that averages 39.1 PPG (6th in the NCAA), but the adjusted stats say that Cincinnati's less-than-average strength-of-schedule is hurting them here. Sagarin agrees, pegging the Bearcats' SoS at 75th in the nation. Cincinnati has a somewhat downhill schedule from here with three of their last four at home. However, getting past West Virginia and Pittsburgh will be difficult.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (13) Cincinnati | 24 | (52) Connecticut | 17 | 87.5 |
| (13) Cincinnati | 24 | (27) West Virginia | 17 | 78.4 |
| (13) Cincinnati | 24 | (78) Illinois | 17 | 94.5 |
| (20) Pittsburgh | 17 | (13) Cincinnati | 24 | 63.0 |
All together the Bearcats have a 41% chance of finishing the year undefeated, and are just as likely to finish the year with one loss. Cincinnati is a good team but are even more overrated by the BCS than Boise State and TCU.
Iowa (#4 BCS, #14 TFG, 0.855 WPct, 0.559 SoS)
The Hawkeyes have been on the knife's edge all season and have come out ahead each time. They've defeated (48) Michigan State, (65) Michigan, and (83) Arkansas State by a combined margin of seven points. Yet this is the same team that defeated Penn State on the road by 11. As time passes, though, you have to wonder if the true Iowa team is the one that defeated Penn State on the road or the one that struggled to put away Indiana at home.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (14) Iowa | 24 | (75) Northwestern | 17 | 94.2 |
| (6) Ohio St. | 17 | (14) Iowa | 7 | 82.3 |
| (14) Iowa | 24 | (58) Minnesota | 17 | 89.9 |
The entire Hawkeye season will come down to how they do on November 14th at Ohio State. Right now the odds don't look good, with OSU pegged as 5-to-1 favorites. Iowa has roughly a 1-in-6 shot of finishing the year undefeated, but a win over OSU bumps those odds up to nearly 5-in-6. In short: we'll wait and see.
Tomorrow ... the thrilling conclusion of the Week 10 BCS picture.
